Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-03-13 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 41.4%

EDM: 58.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.65

EDM: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	STL	EDM
Season SV%	0.901	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	38	36	2	94.7%	4.18	3	2.18
EDM	Connor Ingram	25	22	3	88.0%	2.75	0	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • STL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2026-01-18	EDM 5 - 0 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-11-03	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2025-04-09	EDM 4 - 3 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-02-04	STL 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	9	0	0.66
1	EDM	10	0	0.61
2	STL	8	0	0.48
2	EDM	22	1	1.50
3	STL	18	0	1.22
3	EDM	17	1	1.43
4	STL	3	0	0.39
4	EDM	4	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.6 - 2.7