Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 56.3%

BOS: 43.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.17

BOS: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	WSH	BOS
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	40	37	3	92.5%	4.62	1	1.62
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	35	33	2	94.3%	3.47	3	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.58
1	BOS	9	0	0.31
2	WSH	18	1	1.39
2	BOS	15	0	0.86
3	WSH	8	2	0.69
3	BOS	21	0	1.51
4	WSH	2	0	0.09
4	BOS	5	0	0.44
5	WSH	9	0	0.73
5	BOS	9	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1