Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 59.9%

BOS: 40.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.53

BOS: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.58
1	BOS	9	0	0.31
2	WSH	18	1	1.39
2	BOS	15	0	0.86
3	WSH	8	2	0.69
3	BOS	21	0	1.51
4	WSH	2	0	0.09
4	BOS	5	0	0.44
5	WSH	9	0	0.73
5	BOS	9	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8