San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 60.9%

SJS: 39.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.54

SJS: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	MTL	SJS
Season SV%	0.889	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	22	18	4	81.8%	5.00	7	1.00
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	27	25	2	92.6%	3.22	3	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	23	2	1.86
1	SJS	19	3	2.08
2	MTL	8	0	0.48
2	SJS	8	1	0.86
3	MTL	16	1	0.88
3	SJS	16	3	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown