Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 47.5%

CGY: 52.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.14

CGY: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	NYI	CGY
Season SV%	0.909	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	32	30	2	93.8%	2.75	2	0.75
CGY	Devin Cooley	27	24	3	88.9%	2.85	4	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	CGY
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	NYI
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	4	1.68
1	CGY	14	1	1.27
2	NYI	11	0	0.70
2	CGY	11	0	0.52
3	NYI	11	0	0.47
3	CGY	19	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown