Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 52.8%

SEA: 47.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.98

SEA: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	VAN	SEA
Season SV%	0.000	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	33	28	5	84.8%	2.62	2	-2.38
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	34	32	2	94.1%	2.50	0	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VAN at home vs SEA: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VAN 2 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN
2026-02-28	SEA 5 - 1 VAN	SEA	SEA
2026-01-02	VAN 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	VAN
2025-12-29	SEA 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-02	VAN 0 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	22	0	1.18
1	SEA	14	0	0.69
2	VAN	17	0	0.77
2	SEA	17	1	1.14
3	VAN	9	0	0.55
3	SEA	13	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown