Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 78.4%

CHI: 21.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.69

CHI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	VGK	CHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	21	21	0	100.0%	2.42	1	2.42
CHI	Spencer Knight	32	28	4	87.5%	3.54	1	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-02-27	VGK 7 - 5 CHI	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.15
1	CHI	13	0	0.50
2	VGK	15	1	1.31
2	CHI	10	0	0.80
3	VGK	12	0	1.07
3	CHI	15	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown