Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-15 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 62.8%

TOR: 37.2%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.35

TOR: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	MIN	TOR
Season SV%	0.928	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	26	22	4	84.6%	2.27	1	-1.73
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	38	36	2	94.7%	4.31	3	2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	TOR
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	22	0	1.67
1	TOR	9	0	0.52
2	MIN	17	0	0.61
2	TOR	19	0	0.97
3	MIN	19	3	2.04
3	TOR	7	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown