Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 54.5%

CGY: 45.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.27

CGY: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	DET	CGY
Season SV%	0.893	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	25	2	92.6%	2.19	0	0.19
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	20	5	80.0%	3.77	4	-1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	1.29
1	CGY	15	0	0.94
2	DET	12	2	1.12
2	CGY	16	0	0.86
3	DET	12	2	1.37
3	CGY	8	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown