Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Boston Bruins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 65.4%

BOS: 34.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.41

BOS: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	MTL	BOS
Season SV%	0.889	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	26	2	92.9%	3.73	6	1.73
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	28	3	90.3%	4.32	6	1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	2	1.22
1	BOS	17	4	2.10
2	MTL	17	2	1.52
2	BOS	13	1	0.55
3	MTL	16	1	0.80
3	BOS	9	1	0.90
4	MTL	5	1	0.78
4	BOS	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9