Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 46.5%

FLA: 53.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.27

FLA: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	VAN	FLA
Season SV%	0.885	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	23	21	2	91.3%	4.02	3	2.02
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	22	17	5	77.3%	2.83	4	-2.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • VAN at home vs FLA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VAN 5 - 2 FLA	VAN	FLA
2025-11-17	FLA 8 - 5 VAN	FLA	FLA
2024-12-12	VAN 4 - 0 FLA	VAN	FLA
2024-10-17	FLA 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	FLA
2023-12-14	VAN 4 - 0 FLA	VAN	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	14	1	1.30
1	FLA	17	0	1.17
2	VAN	7	1	0.44
2	FLA	14	1	1.07
3	VAN	10	2	1.08
3	FLA	19	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown