Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 56.5%

BUF: 43.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

BUF: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	VGK	BUF
Season SV%	0.888	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	25	23	2	92.0%	3.34	3	1.34
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	28	0	100.0%	3.30	0	3.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.52
1	BUF	15	0	1.06
2	VGK	12	0	0.97
2	BUF	14	1	0.85
3	VGK	16	0	0.81
3	BUF	9	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown