Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 60.2%

DAL: 39.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.12

DAL: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	1	0.64
1	DAL	7	0	0.31
2	COL	25	0	1.12
2	DAL	14	2	1.53
3	COL	14	0	1.05
3	DAL	6	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0