Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 56.2%

DAL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.32

DAL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	COL	DAL
Season SV%	0.919	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	21	19	2	90.5%	4.20	4	2.20
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	34	1	97.1%	3.36	1	2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	1	0.64
1	DAL	7	0	0.31
2	COL	25	0	1.12
2	DAL	14	2	1.53
3	COL	16	0	1.10
3	DAL	8	0	0.53
4	COL	3	0	0.26
4	DAL	6	1	0.76
5	COL	3	0	0.23
5	DAL	3	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1