Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 50.1%

PHI: 49.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.32

PHI: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	ANA	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	30	27	3	90.0%	5.79	4	2.79
PHI	Dan Vladar	36	34	2	94.4%	3.18	3	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • ANA at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	ANA 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	ANA
2026-01-06	PHI 5 - 2 ANA	PHI	PHI
2025-01-11	PHI 6 - 0 ANA	PHI	PHI
2024-12-28	ANA 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-11-10	ANA 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	0	0.63
1	PHI	29	1	2.44
2	ANA	21	2	1.56
2	PHI	15	2	1.85
3	ANA	18	1	0.94
3	PHI	11	1	1.25
4	ANA	1	0	0.04
4	PHI	2	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2