Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 48.6%

MTL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.02

MTL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	DET	MTL
Season SV%	0.893	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	33	32	1	97.0%	2.92	0	1.92
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	25	3	89.3%	3.32	2	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DET at home vs MTL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	MTL 1 - 0 DET	MTL	MTL
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.59
1	MTL	17	0	1.31
2	DET	18	0	0.91
2	MTL	16	0	1.12
3	DET	18	2	1.82
3	MTL	18	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown