Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 47.6%

MTL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.96

MTL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.59
1	MTL	17	0	1.31
2	DET	18	0	0.91
2	MTL	16	0	1.12
3	DET	18	2	1.82
3	MTL	18	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0