Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 58.9%

UTA: 41.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.40

UTA: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs UTA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	1.30
1	UTA	12	2	1.34
2	VGK	25	0	0.95
2	UTA	11	0	0.59
3	VGK	18	1	1.83
3	UTA	6	3	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9