Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 55.2%

UTA: 44.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

UTA: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	VGK	UTA
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	18	14	4	77.8%	3.53	5	-0.47
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	28	28	0	100.0%	4.08	2	4.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs UTA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	1.30
1	UTA	12	2	1.34
2	VGK	25	0	0.95
2	UTA	11	0	0.59
3	VGK	18	1	1.83
3	UTA	6	3	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown