Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 57.2%

FLA: 42.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.10

FLA: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	CGY	FLA
Season SV%	0.901	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	24	1	96.0%	1.88	0	0.88
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	36	32	4	88.9%	3.55	3	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs FLA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	CGY
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.94
1	FLA	10	0	0.42
2	CGY	13	0	0.76
2	FLA	16	0	0.97
3	CGY	18	3	1.85
3	FLA	14	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown