Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 57.8%

WPG: 42.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.28

WPG: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	PIT
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.49
1	WPG	16	1	1.60
2	PIT	13	1	0.72
2	WPG	15	1	1.08
3	PIT	7	0	0.24
3	WPG	12	0	0.62
4	PIT	7	0	0.80
4	WPG	2	0	0.11
5	PIT	3	2	1.80
5	WPG	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0