Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 45.7%

VGK: 54.3%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.21

VGK: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	NSH	VGK
Season SV%	0.875	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.29	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Justus Annunen	40	39	1	97.5%	3.96	2	2.96
VGK	Akira Schmid	20	16	4	80.0%	3.21	3	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NSH at home vs VGK: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NSH 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-21	NSH 4 - 1 VGK	NSH	VGK
2026-01-17	VGK 7 - 2 NSH	VGK	VGK
2025-12-31	VGK 2 - 4 NSH	NSH	VGK
2025-04-12	VGK 5 - 3 NSH	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	4	0	0.14
1	VGK	29	2	2.27
2	NSH	17	1	1.84
2	VGK	12	0	0.48
3	NSH	10	2	1.23
3	VGK	18	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown