Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 60.5%

BUF: 39.5%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.20

BUF: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	LAK	BUF
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.70	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Anton Forsberg	34	30	4	88.2%	3.87	4	-0.13
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	26	1	96.3%	2.01	0	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • LAK at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	LAK 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	LAK
2026-01-29	BUF 4 - 1 LAK	BUF	LAK
2024-11-20	LAK 0 - 1 BUF	BUF	LAK
2024-10-10	BUF 1 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2024-02-13	BUF 7 - 0 LAK	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	13	0	0.64
1	BUF	17	1	0.96
2	LAK	17	0	0.82
2	BUF	8	1	0.35
3	LAK	7	0	0.56
3	BUF	18	2	2.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown