Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DAL: 44.0%

VGK: 56.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.66

VGK: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	1	0.81
1	VGK	16	1	1.76
2	DAL	4	1	0.39
2	VGK	13	0	1.10
3	DAL	11	0	0.75
3	VGK	17	3	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3