Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.8%

OTT: 45.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.21

OTT: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	0.74
1	OTT	8	0	0.61
2	DET	15	1	0.95
2	OTT	13	2	1.02
3	DET	19	1	1.28
3	OTT	12	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9