Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 59.1%

CHI: 40.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.18

CHI: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	NYI	CHI
Season SV%	0.909	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	24	20	4	83.3%	3.25	3	-0.75
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	47	44	3	93.6%	5.78	5	2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	NYI 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	NYI
2025-12-30	CHI 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2024-12-15	CHI 5 - 3 NYI	CHI	NYI
2024-12-12	NYI 5 - 4 CHI	NYI	NYI
2024-04-02	NYI 2 - 1 CHI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	21	2	1.78
1	CHI	15	2	1.56
2	NYI	16	0	1.21
2	CHI	9	0	0.64
3	NYI	38	3	2.79
3	CHI	9	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown