New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 6 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 52.7%

NJD: 47.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.28

NJD: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	1	0.53
1	NJD	11	3	1.52
2	DAL	13	0	1.01
2	NJD	12	2	1.06
3	DAL	19	0	0.86
3	NJD	10	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 6 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0