New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 6 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 53.2%

NJD: 46.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.45

NJD: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	DAL	NJD
Season SV%	0.907	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	19	6	76.0%	4.15	7	-1.85
NJD	Jake Allen	27	23	4	85.2%	2.40	1	-1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	1	0.53
1	NJD	11	3	1.52
2	DAL	13	0	1.01
2	NJD	12	2	1.06
3	DAL	19	0	0.86
3	NJD	10	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown