Edmonton Oilers at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 41.9%

EDM: 58.1%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.02

EDM: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 56%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	UTA	EDM
Season SV%	0.895	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	21	5	80.8%	3.25	1	-1.75
EDM	Tristan Jarry	18	16	2	88.9%	1.80	2	-0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • UTA at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	UTA 6 - 5 EDM	UTA	EDM
2026-03-24	UTA 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-28	EDM 6 - 3 UTA	EDM	EDM
2025-03-18	EDM 7 - 1 UTA	EDM	EDM
2024-12-31	EDM 4 - 1 UTA	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	8	0	0.26
1	EDM	11	0	0.54
2	UTA	12	2	0.93
2	EDM	17	0	1.21
3	UTA	13	0	0.61
3	EDM	14	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown