Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 64.3%

BOS: 35.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.39

BOS: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.70
1	BOS	15	0	0.65
2	BUF	21	0	1.45
2	BOS	18	1	0.99
3	BUF	8	0	0.73
3	BOS	11	1	0.62
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	BOS	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7