New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 43.6%

NYR: 56.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.97

NYR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.74
1	NYR	18	1	1.11
2	TOR	7	0	0.43
2	NYR	23	0	1.14
3	TOR	8	1	0.35
3	NYR	19	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8