New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 46.9%

NYR: 53.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.07

NYR: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYR
Season SV%	0.914	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	43	40	3	93.0%	3.31	2	0.31
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	18	14	4	77.8%	1.52	1	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.74
1	NYR	18	1	1.11
2	TOR	7	0	0.43
2	NYR	23	0	1.14
3	TOR	8	1	0.35
3	NYR	19	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown