Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 43.4%

CBJ: 56.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.98

CBJ: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	MTL	CBJ
Season SV%	0.889	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	26	25	1	96.2%	3.18	3	2.18
CBJ	Jet Greaves	20	18	2	90.0%	2.23	2	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs CBJ: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	CBJ
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	MTL
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.67
1	CBJ	18	2	1.50
2	MTL	13	0	0.62
2	CBJ	13	1	0.97
3	MTL	9	2	0.94
3	CBJ	13	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown