Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 46.6%

DAL: 53.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.15

DAL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	NYI	DAL
Season SV%	0.910	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	26	1	96.3%	2.98	1	1.98
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	23	2	92.0%	3.32	3	1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NYI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.84
1	DAL	11	0	0.65
2	NYI	12	2	1.38
2	DAL	17	0	1.27
3	NYI	12	1	1.10
3	DAL	15	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown