Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 49.8%

DAL: 50.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.04

DAL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.84
1	DAL	11	0	0.65
2	NYI	12	2	1.38
2	DAL	17	0	1.27
3	NYI	12	1	1.10
3	DAL	15	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0