Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 64.2%

EDM: 35.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.68

EDM: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	10	0.69
1	EDM	13	1.10
2	VGK	13	0.90
2	EDM	15	0.84
3	VGK	8	0.46
3	EDM	12	0.36
4	VGK	6	0.51
4	EDM	2	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0