Florida Panthers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 46.5%

FLA: 53.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.27

FLA: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	NYI	FLA
Season SV%	0.910	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	19	2	90.5%	3.02	2	1.02
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	40	35	5	87.5%	6.56	13	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs FLA: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	FLA
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	3	1.23
1	FLA	12	0	0.97
2	NYI	32	5	2.81
2	FLA	7	1	0.61
3	NYI	16	5	2.52
3	FLA	24	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown