San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 57.6%

SJS: 42.4%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.10

SJS: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	CBJ	SJS
Season SV%	0.877	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	33	3	91.7%	4.12	3	1.12
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	24	22	2	91.7%	2.47	1	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CBJ at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CBJ 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	CBJ
2026-01-06	SJS 5 - 2 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2025-01-16	CBJ 4 - 1 SJS	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-05	SJS 2 - 1 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2024-03-16	CBJ 4 - 2 SJS	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.81
1	SJS	16	1	1.49
2	CBJ	11	1	0.87
2	SJS	22	1	1.61
3	CBJ	10	0	0.78
3	SJS	13	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown