Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 59.9%

TOR: 40.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.33

TOR: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	STL	TOR
Season SV%	0.869	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	13	12	1	92.3%	1.75	3	0.75
TOR	Joseph Woll	38	33	5	86.8%	3.52	0	-1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	TOR
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.87
1	TOR	10	1	0.77
2	STL	18	0	1.48
2	TOR	8	2	0.82
3	STL	15	0	1.17
3	TOR	9	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown