Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

STL: 63.8%

TOR: 36.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.47

TOR: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.87
1	TOR	10	1	0.77
2	STL	18	0	1.48
2	TOR	8	2	0.82
3	STL	15	0	1.17
3	TOR	9	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7