Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 52.7%

MTL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.99

MTL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	NSH	MTL
Season SV%	0.897	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	32	28	4	87.5%	3.85	2	-0.15
MTL	Jacob Fowler	24	23	1	95.8%	1.98	0	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs MTL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NSH 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NSH
2025-10-16	MTL 3 - 2 NSH	MTL	MTL
2025-04-06	NSH 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	NSH
2024-12-05	MTL 3 - 0 NSH	MTL	MTL
2024-03-05	NSH 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	6	0	0.22
1	MTL	17	0	1.26
2	NSH	17	0	0.86
2	MTL	19	0	1.38
3	NSH	14	0	0.91
3	MTL	12	2	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown