St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-30 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 42.2%

STL: 57.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.91

STL: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	SJS	STL
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	22	4	84.6%	2.28	1	-1.72
STL	Joel Hofer	29	24	5	82.8%	2.95	1	-2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • SJS at home vs STL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	STL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	STL
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	1.30
1	STL	5	0	0.27
2	SJS	11	1	0.83
2	STL	12	0	0.91
3	SJS	13	0	0.82
3	STL	18	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown