Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 40.3%

DAL: 59.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.92

DAL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	BOS	DAL
Season SV%	0.882	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	16	13	3	81.2%	2.30	2	-0.70
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	17	6	73.9%	4.80	5	-1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-19	BOS 4 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	1	1.44
1	DAL	11	0	0.85
2	BOS	14	0	0.84
2	DAL	8	2	1.01
3	BOS	12	4	2.52
3	DAL	9	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown