New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

BUF: 62.9%

NYI: 37.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.84

NYI: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • BUF at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.24
1	NYI	8	0	0.40
2	BUF	13	1	1.33
2	NYI	12	1	0.98
3	BUF	21	3	1.89
3	NYI	17	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1