Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 59.4%

MTL: 40.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.81

MTL: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.92
1	MTL	14	0	0.87
2	TBL	15	1	1.02
2	MTL	8	0	0.52
3	TBL	21	1	1.52
3	MTL	12	4	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6