Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PIT: 55.6%

DET: 44.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.57

DET: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.56
1	DET	10	0	0.55
2	PIT	18	0	1.35
2	DET	16	1	1.32
3	PIT	16	0	1.48
3	DET	16	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8