Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

WSH: 51.3%

PHI: 48.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

PHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	1	0.62
1	PHI	17	1	0.91
2	WSH	12	0	0.90
2	PHI	11	3	1.74
3	WSH	7	2	1.18
3	PHI	15	2	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2