Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 8 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 74.2%

VAN: 25.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.61

VAN: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	COL	VAN
Season SV%	0.924	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	18	8	69.2%	3.33	1	-4.67
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	30	24	6	80.0%	3.30	4	-2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • COL at home vs VAN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	1	0.84
1	VAN	17	0	1.24
2	COL	11	0	0.90
2	VAN	14	0	0.85
3	COL	20	3	1.56
3	VAN	11	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 14.0

Expected: 7.9

Score Breakdown