Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 64.0%

BUF: 36.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

BUF: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 56%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	OTT	BUF
Season SV%	0.881	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	22	21	1	95.5%	2.31	1	1.31
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	24	20	4	83.3%	4.16	4	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	7	0	0.24
1	BUF	11	0	1.18
2	OTT	16	2	1.19
2	BUF	14	1	0.75
3	OTT	15	2	2.73
3	BUF	11	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown