Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 62.2%

PIT: 37.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

PIT: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	TBL	PIT
Season SV%	0.913	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	1.97	1	-1.03
PIT	Stuart Skinner	33	27	6	81.8%	4.81	5	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	2	1.21
1	PIT	14	0	0.69
2	TBL	15	1	1.54
2	PIT	13	1	0.88
3	TBL	17	2	2.05
3	PIT	9	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown