Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-04-02 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 61.1%
PIT: 38.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.14
PIT: 2.58
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.922 | 0.844 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | TBL 6 - 3 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:10 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 00:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:08 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:33 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.1 - 2.6
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