Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 57.8%

DET: 42.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.14

DET: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	PHI	DET
Season SV%	0.868	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	19	15	4	78.9%	2.07	1	-1.93
DET	John Gibson	34	32	2	94.1%	4.38	3	2.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.47
1	DET	12	0	0.87
2	PHI	23	1	1.60
2	DET	10	1	0.82
3	PHI	21	2	2.31
3	DET	8	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown