Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 72.1%

CHI: 27.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.26

CHI: 2.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	EDM	CHI
Season SV%	0.906	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	18	17	1	94.4%	3.28	3	2.28
CHI	Spencer Knight	39	36	3	92.3%	4.61	2	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • EDM at home vs CHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	EDM 3 - 1 CHI	EDM	EDM
2026-01-12	CHI 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-11-01	EDM 3 - 2 CHI	EDM	EDM
2025-02-05	CHI 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-11	CHI 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	21	0	1.55
1	CHI	10	2	1.26
2	EDM	20	1	1.51
2	CHI	14	0	0.91
3	EDM	13	1	1.55
3	CHI	13	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown