Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

VGK: 74.2%

CGY: 25.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.20

CGY: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 92% • VGK at home vs CGY: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	1	1.41
1	CGY	11	0	0.74
2	VGK	16	1	1.31
2	CGY	11	1	0.84
3	VGK	13	2	1.21
3	CGY	6	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 4.2 - 2.8