Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

SJS: 61.0%

TOR: 39.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.70

TOR: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	TOR
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	SJS
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	17	0	0.68
1	TOR	11	0	0.54
2	SJS	14	0	0.75
2	TOR	9	0	0.64
3	SJS	10	1	1.60
3	TOR	18	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0