Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-04-03 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 56.4%
PHI: 43.6%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.31
PHI: 2.54
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | NYI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.955 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | NYI 1 - 4 PHI | PHI | NYI |
| 2026-01-26 | PHI 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | PHI |
| 2025-11-28 | NYI 3 - 4 PHI | PHI | NYI |
| 2025-10-25 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | NYI |
| 2025-04-12 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:54 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 15:01 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 02:52 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 15:37 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 09:16 | PHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.5
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