St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-04-03 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 6 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 50.6%

STL: 49.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.09

STL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	ANA	STL
Season SV%	0.888	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	29	23	6	79.3%	3.57	3	-2.43
STL	Joel Hofer	27	25	2	92.6%	3.81	4	1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • ANA at home vs STL: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	ANA 2 - 6 STL	STL	ANA
2026-03-08	ANA 0 - 4 STL	STL	ANA
2025-12-01	STL 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	STL
2025-03-16	STL 7 - 2 ANA	STL	STL
2025-03-07	ANA 3 - 4 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	11	1	0.90
1	STL	19	2	1.69
2	ANA	19	2	1.60
2	STL	10	1	0.77
3	ANA	17	1	1.32
3	STL	12	0	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown