Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 63.2%

MIN: 36.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.28

MIN: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	OTT	MIN
Season SV%	0.881	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	19	4	82.6%	2.69	2	-1.31
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	34	33	1	97.1%	2.51	2	1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	OTT 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	OTT
2025-12-13	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT
2025-02-01	OTT 6 - 0 MIN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-29	MIN 1 - 3 OTT	OTT	MIN
2024-04-02	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	0.76
1	MIN	12	2	1.28
2	OTT	9	1	0.66
2	MIN	16	0	0.88
3	OTT	18	1	1.08
3	MIN	9	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown