Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 40.8%

COL: 59.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.89

COL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	DAL	COL
Season SV%	0.912	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	22	20	2	90.9%	3.56	3	1.56
COL	Scott Wedgewood	17	17	0	100.0%	2.08	2	2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.66
1	COL	14	0	0.83
2	DAL	7	0	0.40
2	COL	11	0	0.24
3	DAL	13	2	1.02
3	COL	14	3	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown